Comparison with other tools #

Manifold Markets #

Cleodora is different from Manifold Markets because:

• Running it locally on your computer is the default and all forecasts are private whereas, on Manifold everything is public.
• Cleodora is about your own forecasts, not other people’s.
• You can directly measure the quality of your forecasts instead of only indirectly via the amount of M$ (mana) you earn over time, meaning you can better drill down where exactly you failed in specific instances.
• If the probability you currently predict is the same as the market, then in Manifold there is nothing you can do. Your ability to make a forecast depends on other people, whereas in Cleodora it’s only about you.

Metaculus #

Cleodora is different from Metaculus because:

• Running it locally on your computer is the default.
• Metaculus’s focus is on questions of public interest that are edited and curated by the administrators, whereas Cleodora’s focus is on your personal forecasts.
• That being said, the Metaculus private questions come very close to what Cleodora does and even allow you to share those questions with other users, which is currently not possible with Cleodora.
• Metaculus question types can only be binary (yes/no), numeric range or date range, whereas Cleodora allows you to specify as many outcomes per forecast as you want.

PredictionBook #

Cleodora is different from PredictionBook because:

• Running it locally on your computer is the default, and is easier than with PredictionBook because Cleodora is single binary, no dependencies and cross platform (Microsoft Windows, macOS, Linux). To run PredictionBook locally you need Ruby on Rails.
• The Cleodora UI aims to look more modern and be mobile friendly.
• In PredictionBook it’s only possible to make binary (yes/no) forecasts whereas making ones with three or more possible answers is supported by Cleodora.
• Development of PredictionBook seems to have stopped, except for dependency updates and bug fixes. Note that this is not necessarily bad. If a tool does what it’s supposed to do, why continue tinkering with it?

That being said, if you want a great and working tool right now, PredictionBook is a good choice. It essentially does everything Cleodora aims to do in the future. The Credence game is also really cool and fun, albeit a little US-centric.

The roadmap of Cleodora is filled with great features! But like any roadmap, it might not survive contact with reality.